If the consensus view right now is for a coin-flip's chance we see a mild recession, the market sure is acting healthy. When you throw the weight of Europe's debt crisis on top of that probability, it's a wonder we haven't broken the lows.
My approach has been to watch the fundamental backdrop of economic uncertainty and to trade the emotional swings against high-probability support and resistance around it. Here's an update of the S&P 500 chart I showed earlier in the week targeting a rally to 1,220-1,240.
This rally doesn't appear over yet, especially with the intraday strength on Friday making a second run for the highs at 1,220 as of noon Eastern. A punch through the steeply dropping 50-day moving average at 1,228 is still very likely.
And a touch of the upper channel trend above 1,240 is still in line with the very bullish bounce off of support at 1,135. A push through the previous swing highs around 1,225 will activate lots of technical buying programs and related short-covering that should have the strength to get us to 1,240. .......
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