Monday, 9 May 2011
Silver sell-off, record low t-bill rates, inflation.. 3rd May
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Gold rises, silver climbs 6pc as dollar retreats
Gold rises, silver climbs 6pc as dollar retreats
MONDAY, 09 MAY 2011 17:36
MONDAY, 09 MAY 2011 17:36
LONDON: Gold climbed back above $1,500 an ounce on Monday and silver rallied more than 6 percent as a retreating dollar and a rebound in oil prices helped precious metals recover some ground after last week's hefty losses.
Spot gold rose as high as $1,510.40 an ounce and was bid at $1,506.30 an ounce at 1123 GMT, against $1,494.05 late in New York on Friday. Silver rallied more than 6 percent to a high of $37.94 and was later at $37.42 an ounce versus $35.60.
Among precious metals, silver bore the brunt of last week's commodities sell-off, down 25 percent week on week by late Friday as investors liquidated positions. A near 1 percent retreat in the dollar, which makes dollar-priced assets cheaper for other currency holders, is helping it to recover.
The euro bounced back on Monday as some investors viewed its sell-off last week on concerns about Greek debt as overdone, given the fact interest rate differentials between the euro zone and the United States remain favourable.
However, technical indicators suggest the single currency's recovery could be temporary, while uncertainty over how the euro zone will tackle the prolonged debt crisis in some peripheral member countries is continuing to worry buyers.
‘The big confusion in the whole picture is what people are going to do with the US dollar,’ said Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins. ‘You have competing concerns, with a change in policy rhetoric in the US and mounting concerns over the euro.’
‘It is too hard to have a lot of conviction. That will probably weigh on pricing (for commodities), though maybe gold will outperform in that sort of environment.
‘Silver has rebounded from the lows, but I think it is very difficult to justify more strength from a fundamental perspective,’ he added.
From a technical perspective, silver is also looking more vulnerable than gold after last week's rout, analysts said.
‘Gold did not break any significant levels on the downside, so long-term investors were not forced out like in silver, where it was pure carnage,’ said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.
OIL RALLIES
A rebound in oil prices also supported gold, underpinning investor confidence in commodities as an asset class. US crude futures rose more than 3 percent, helped up by a soft dollar and bargain hunting after last week's selling.
On the wider markets, European shares fell, however, after top euro zone finance officials discussed the need for new adjustments to Greece's aid programme, with fund managers advising caution on the euro zone peripheries.
A sustained recovery in commodities will be reliant on the outlook for global growth, analysts said.
Among precious metals, this is especially the case for those with an industrial element, including platinum and palladium, and silver, last week's biggest loser.
‘While cautious investor positioning is one obstacle faced by silver, a bigger roadblock is more likely to be the questions that hang over commodities more generally,’ said Swiss bank UBS in a note on Monday.
‘To be sure, silver's sudden fall was a large reason for the general commodities washout, but fading economic momentum was another. For silver to climb convincingly back over $40, it needs the support of generally rising commodities and a stable risk appetite.’
Among other precious metals, platinum was at $1,791.50 an ounce against $1,781.75, while palladium was at $726 against $713.88.
Silver a volatile Market...9th May
MONDAY, MAY 9, 2011
Russ Koesterich,of BlackRock iShares Group says : " silver, unlikegold, does have industrial demand. about 50% of demand for silver comes from industries. industries like photography. that saidance there's no evidence, a spike in demand or significant contraction and supply. most of the moves, particularly in the last few months, is mostly investment driven. " "going back 30 or 40 years there's been a stable relationship between silver and gold. silver historically is 1/55th the cost of gold. silver got to the to 1/30 the cost of gold. even today coming down 30%, it's trading about 1/40 of an ounce of gold. still very expensive by historical standards"
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China Yuan Hits New Record High Against Dollar
China Yuan Hits New Record High Against Dollar
China Yuan Hits New Record High Against Dollar
Written by: KUNA
May 9, 2011The Chinese yuan hit a new record high against US dollar on Monday ahead of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the China Foreign Exchange Trading System said.
The central parity rate of the yuan advanced to CNY 6.4988 per US dollar, up 15 basis points from Friday’s 6.5003 to the greenback.
The People’s Bank of China fixes the central parity rate, an official reference for daily trading, every morning, and allows the currency to fluctuate up to 0.5 percent from the rate. Based on the central parity, yuan strengthened against the dollar.
China
The yuan first broke the symbolic 6.50 ratio against the US dollar on April 29, when it was set at 6.4990, according to state-run Xinhua News Agency.
The yuan exchange rate has risen by nearly 5 percent against the greenback since June 19 of last year, when the central bank announced that it would make its exchange rate formation mechanism more flexible.
As the two-day China-US Economic and Strategic Dialogue opens in Washington later in the day, it is expected the yuan exchange rate will be one of the issues on the agenda, said Xinhua.
American policymakers often argue that the Chinese currency is significantly undervalued, giving China’s exporters an unfair advantage.
Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said on May 6 that the exchange rate issue is a matter of China’s own economic sovereignty and China and the US remain divided on the specifics, stressing that Beijing believes the objective is to deepen exchange rate reforms, while Washington is focused on the range of the yuan’s appreciation.
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In Honor of Victory: RT special coverage of Red Square military parade (...
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Why Silver Why Now - An Expert's View
SilverDollarEconomy on May 8, 2011
Because the Federal Reserve owns the printing presses that pump out the US Paper Dollars the controlling class for years has suppresses the free market prices of Gold and Silver in order to keep their paper dollars unrivalled.
Americans are quickly loosing confidence in their markets, in their media and in their government and the creditor nations to who the USA owes Trillions are also starting to lose confidence in the US Dollar.
For a more indepth look at the artile that goes with this video please take a look at: http://silverdollareconomy.com/the-silver-bullion-club-why-silver-why-now/
Americans are quickly loosing confidence in their markets, in their media and in their government and the creditor nations to who the USA owes Trillions are also starting to lose confidence in the US Dollar.
For a more indepth look at the artile that goes with this video please take a look at: http://silverdollareconomy.com/the-silver-bullion-club-why-silver-why-now/
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Morgan Stanley/Goldman Sachs Bond Propaganda - 6th May
Written by Jeff NielsonFriday, 06 May 2011 10:57
What qualifications do you need to be “head of interest rate strategy” at Morgan Stanley? It requires that you must know absolutely nothing about interest rates or economics.
Observe incompetence in action. We are being told by this esteemed “expert” (and echoed by the “experts” at Goldman Sachs) that a “slower-than-forecast pace of inflation” and slower economic growth will translate into higher prices for U.S. Treasuries.
Let’s take these parameters and apply them to the real world. First of all, in the real world inflation is rapidly accelerating, so we can begin with the fact that this is (at least in part) another exercise in fantasy. However, for sake of argument let’s assume that this nonsense is actually valid.
With banker money-printing and government borrowing running at (by far) their highest rates in history, this is supposed to provide enormous stimulus for all of these economies. In other words, if there was even the tiniest semblance of health in these economies, then after three years of insane money-printing, near-zero interest rates, and record-deficits all of these economies should be ‘over-heating’.
The fact that with even the most extreme stimulus in history (by a factor of ten), all of these Western economies are reporting either very anemic growth or even sporadic contractions (as occurred in Canada’s economy in February) shows that these economies are ‘sicker’ than they have ever been at any time in modern history (including the Great Depression).
This confirms what I’ve been saying in my own analysis all along: that this extreme money-printing and extreme borrowing must continue to destroy our economies, since it was excessive money-printing and borrowing which created all of these economic problems. To repeat an analogy, just like an alcoholic, our debt-junkie governments continue to pretend that they can “cure” the economic hang-overs caused by too much debt and money-printing with more debt and money-printing.
Now we have the “experts” at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs openly confessing that this stimulus is failing (in order to pump the U.S. bond market). What does this mean in economic terms? On the one hand, with the developing economies which are still relatively healthy, “sick” Western (consumer) economies will buy much less of their goods – meaning that the trade surpluses of these nations will shrink or disappear entirely. Indeed, China just reported its first trade deficit a month earlier, and (not coincidentally) has been selling U.S. Treasuries for the last four months.
This dynamic is very simple, and very obvious. The only nations with any “surpluses” to buy Western debt will have much smaller surpluses, or no surpluses at all. This means falling demand for U.S. Treasuries and all Western debt.
Conversely, with our debt-bloated Western economies already reporting “record deficits” every year, what does the “slowing growth” which Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warn us about mean for Western budgets? Obviously it means even higher deficits, and even more borrowing; translating into rising supply for U.S. Treasuries and all Western debt.
Now here is an economics “test” for anyone who has spent even a week in an Economics 101 class: what does it mean when you have either “falling demand” or “rising supply”? It meansfalling bond prices. Now the “bonus question”: what does it mean when you simultaneouslyhave falling demand and rising supply? It means rapidly falling bond prices.
Note that this analysis still excludes two huge fundamentals. First of all, many/most Western economies are hopelessly insolvent. In fact the “risk premium” which any sane investor must attach to Western debt should result in an even larger drop in prices than that caused by falling demand/rising supply.
Secondly, the most rapid money-printing in history also obviously translates into the most rapid currency dilution in history. Thus any sane investor will demand another risk premiumbefore they could be tempted into holding any of the currencies in which this worthless paperis denominated.
It is therefore a matter of the most elementary economic analysis that if we plug-in the parameters supplied to us by the “experts” at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, we arrive at the unequivocal conclusion that bond prices must plummet lower (rather than going “higher” as these charlatans claim). However, this is still only half of the required analysis.
Western economies have now become so saturated with debt that they have begun aterminal “vicious circle”. As interest rates creep higher due to falling demand, rising supply, and greater risk-premiums (as evidenced in credit-default swap markets); the rise in interest rates alone makes these economies much less-solvent. This increases the deficits still further, which increases the borrowing still further, which increases the bond-supply and the risk-premium still further, which pushes up interest rates still further – and then we begin the feedback cycle again.
This is most easily illustrated with the U.S. economy – the most insolvent of all Western economies. If we completely ignore the $100 trillion (or so) in “unfunded liabilities”(something not done in any other Western economy), that still leaves the bankrupt U.S. economy with $60 trillion in total public/private debt. Raising interest rates even 1% would drain an additional $600 billion from this economy (every year) in interest payments alone. That massive capital-drain would amount to a nearly 5% plunge in U.S. GDP before factoring in the multiplier effect. In other words, even that tiny increase in interest rates would immediately send the U.S. economy spiraling toward bankruptcy.
This brings us to the real purpose of this piece of propaganda from Bloomberg. There are obviously no chumps still willing to pay the highest prices in history for U.S. Treasuries, when fundamentals clearly dictate that bond prices must plummet much, much lower.
Conversely, as we heard from Ben Bernake in his 2011 April Fool’s Day joke, he’s planning another “exit strategy”. The problem: how can the Federal Reserve “exit” from all of its bond-buying when there is no one else on the planet who could possibly buy-up all those $100’s of billions (per month) in Treasuries?
The answer of course is that in the real world the Fed cannot possibly make an exit. However, if it is going to even pretend to make an “exit” then the propaganda-machine must attempt to create a plausible myth that there are still chumps willing to pay the highest prices in history to finance the debts of a hopelessly insolvent economy.
After this pathetic attempt by Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs to try to provide some “cover” for Bernanke’s “exit” from the U.S. Treasuries market, all I can say is “you better try again.
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18749:morgan-stanleygoldman-sachs-bond-propaganda&catid=47:us-commentary&Itemid=132
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Emergency Broadcast Silver Sanity Special Report. Part 2 of 2
Emergency Broadcast Silver Sanity Special Report. Part 2 of 2
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
First Fear, Then Anger - SilverSeek.com
First Fear, Then Anger - SilverSeek.com
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
This is an excerpt from the Weekly Review of May 7, 2011
The historic decline this week in silver creates strong emotion. Watching great amounts of wealth disappear, quite literally in minutes amid disorderly trading conditions is a genuine fear for any investor. Worse is seeing no obvious legitimate reason to explain the carnage. If that doesn’t scare you, nothing will. Especially if you already harbored unease about how the whole silver market operated.
But fear is an emotion that burns out fairly quickly. A human being can’t stay in an intense state of fear of financial catastrophe without selling out at some point or mentally adjusting to the new level of price. Then the conditions that led to the fear in the first place are replaced by some other emotion. If evidence exists that the sudden financial loss could and should have been prevented, the new emotion becomes one of anger. Anger at who or what might have caused the loss and who should have prevented it. I think there is compelling evidence pointing to who and what caused this silver crash as well as who should have prevented it.
The first thing we must recognize is that this was an unusually intense price smash. Silver fell 30% for the week, its biggest price loss in 31 years. The decline was highlighted by record trading volume on the COMEX and in shares of SLV. From any objective measure, the trading was disorderly, indicating little true liquidity despite the record volume. That’s because much of the trading was conducted by high frequency trading (HFT) computer bots whose clear purpose seems to be to cause disruptions to prices. These are the same disruptive traders that caused the flash crash in the stock market last year. I believe it was these traders who started the price decline with the $6 hit in 12 minutes on last Sunday evening. Their primary reason for existence seems to be causing prices to collapse.
Why these HFT cheaters are allowed to pollute our markets is beyond me. The only clear beneficiary to their trading is the exchange itself which pockets fees on every contract traded. After they crashed the stock market last year, I believe the HFT computer bots toned down their stock market activity due to regulatory pressure. That’s fine, but why were they then allowed to infect silver trading with their disruptive practices? This is just one question I have about this week’s events in the silver market and I will list them all in a moment. First I would like to get something off my chest.
I am appalled at what happened in silver this week for a very special reason. I can’t say this latest blatant take down looks out of place for a manipulated market which I have been alleging for 25 years. In fact, not that we needed additional proof that the silver market was rigged, but this intentional price smash provided that proof in spades. Admittedly, I look at silver differently than most folks, but there was something very special about this week. The special reason I am particularly appalled this time is that this is the first silver price smash for the record books that took place during the tenure of Gary Gensler as Chairman of the CFTC. There have been some multi-dollar price declines since Gensler was confirmed in May of 2009, but this week’s smash is the first mega-down move under his watch. That makes it very special to me.
As you know, I have put Gensler on a pedestal, repeatedly referring to him as the greatest chairman in CFTC history. Considering my past experiences with the agency, I still marvel at my transformation. I think he has done more than anyone ever to reform commodity regulation, including working diligently, although very quietly, to end the silver manipulation. As you also may know, I have generally come under great criticism and disagreement from many of you about my opinion of Gensler. I have respected that criticism and have used it to reflect on and test my continued belief in the chairman.
This week’s events in silver have created what may be a seminal moment. I still hold a deep belief in Gensler’s character and purpose, but it is important to judge how he and the Commission react to this week’s silver price plunge. Certainly, Gensler doesn’t answer to me, but he does answer to the public who he has sworn to serve and protect. The public was not protected this week in silver. I don’t think he had any inkling beforehand about what transpired this week in silver, but he is too smart not to grasp the significance of the silver price plunge and the circumstances that caused it. How he reacts to his first real-time case of blatant fraud and manipulation in silver will be a key test for him. I sure hope his reaction is different from the typical CFTC reaction before he arrived. You know, the three monkeys’ see, hear and speak no evil reaction.
Gensler is fully aware that there have been more public complaints and comments and agency investigations concerning silver over the years than for any other issue in agency history. The public has done whatever has been suggested or required by the Commission to make its voice known on silver. Cumulatively, there have been tens of thousands of public and private comments to the Commission regarding silver, from position limits to pointing out specific instances of trading abuse. While I suspect progress has been made behind the scenes, that progress is not visible to the public. Here we have a case where the public couldn’t possibly be more vocal to the prime regulator about wrong-doing in silver and is then subject to the most egregious takedown in history.
Silver investors are not second class citizens, yet they are being treated as such. Generally, they are among the most God-fearing, family oriented, hard working, law abiding, productive and patriotic members of society. Chairman Gensler and the Commission know this from the comments that silver investors send in continuously. Then why are silver investors not offered equal protection under the law that the Commission has sworn to uphold? Is there something about “and justice for all” that specifically excludes those that invest in silver? If what occurred in silver this week had instead took place in the stock market, corn, cattle, or any other market, there would be non-stop congressional and CFTC inquiry and debate. Instead, silver investors are confronted with a non-stop barrage of propaganda indicating they were idiots for considering silver.
Please allow me to be blunt and specific. These are the questions that Gensler must confront and address–
One - the $6 takedown in 12 minutes on Sunday evening on initial light Globex volume was clearly intended to get silver prices rolling downhill. It was something I had never witnessed before. There were no fundamental developments in silver to account for it. Therefore, this was not true price discovery, but price-setting and manipulation. What is the Commission’s take on this matter?
Two - the series of margin increases by the CME Group had the effect of adding downward pressure to a market already intentionally rolling downhill. At best, the margin increases prove that silver margins were previously much too low and the CME is incompetent and negligent in setting margins and that function should be taken away from them. At worst, the CME intentionally raised and timed silver margins to aid and abet its most important members in causing the price of silver to crash. In other words, the CME resisted raising margins on the way up as that would have damaged the insider shorts and waited until prices began moving lower to hurt the longs and reward the shorts. I’ve learned from experience that it is best to view the CME as a criminal enterprise. What is the Commission’s opinion on this?
Three – the record high trading volume and 30% price smash indicate there was little true liquidity present. This is due to a disproportionate share of trading being performed by HFT computer bots. Why are these traders allowed to exist and control so much a share of silver trading?
Four – there has been much media and other commentary about silver being in a bubble that burst due to large leveraged speculative buying. This story has been repeated so often that it is now accepted as being true. Yet the CFTC’s own data in the COT reports indicate that no such speculative buying occurred in silver futures prior to the price crash. Commodity law holds that it is a criminal violation to spread false market information. Why is the CFTC allowing this false market information to be disseminated unchallenged? By remaining silent and not setting the record straight, the Commission itself may be in violation of the law.
Five – while outside its direct jurisdiction, the Commission is aware of the allegations of manipulative impact the short selling of shares in the big silver ETF, SLV, has had on the price of silver. What is the Commission’s position on this and has the agency referred this matter to the SEC or taken it up with BlackRock, the trust’s sponsor?
Since the last official denial by the CFTC that anything was wrong in the silver market in May 2008, the agency has issued no further denials. Instead, they initiated a new investigation in September of 2008, but little has been said about the findings of this ongoing silver investigation. I think that the denials of a silver manipulation ceased primarily because of Gary Gensler’s assumption of office two years ago. From day one, he has said and done the things which were consistent with the termination of the silver manipulation. That’s why I have publicly (and privately) expressed my admiration and respect for him.
But this week’s intentional price smash in silver brings us to a critical junction. No, I am not worried about the price of silver in the long term, as the realities of the supply and demand factors are stronger than any manipulation. What I am concerned about are the principles of market integrity and the rule of law. In those terms, what happened this week is the worst thing possible. The public has warned the Commission to no end about wrongdoing in the silver market, only to see that wrongdoing blatantly displayed again. There are many legitimate questions about what actually took place, such as the ones I have listed above.
I think I comprehend the magnitude of the difficult task confronting Gensler in silver. But it is the difficulty of the task that defines the true character of a man or woman. Fixing simple problems and answering easy questions do not lead to greatness. With no pain, comes little gain. Had there been no historic and intentional price crash in silver this week, it would have been appropriate to allow the agency the time necessary to resolve the manipulation. But for the Commission to remain silent now would diminish us all. It’s time for Gensler to speak out on silver and this week’s events. For our collective sake, I hope he does.
Ted Butler
May 7, 2011
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Commodities Tips, EquityTips, Trading Levels for Commodity: Top 5 Performing Gold Equities
Commodities Tips, EquityTips, Trading Levels for Commodity: Top 5 Performing Gold Equities: "Company Symbol Time(EST) Price Change $ Change % SEMAFO ..."
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Top 5 Performing Gold Equities
| Company | Symbol | Time(EST) | Price | Change $ | Change % |
| SEMAFO | SMF.TO | 15:59 | 8.12 CAD | +0.41 | +5.32 |
| CGA Mining Limited | CGA.TO | 16:00 | 2.84 CAD | +0.13 | +4.80 |
| Compania de Minas Buenaventura | NYSE:BVN | 06May11 | 41.11 USD | +1.45 | +3.66 |
| Silvercorp Metals Inc | SVM.TO | 16:21 | 10.77 CAD | +0.34 | +3.26 |
| Silver Standard Resources Inc | NASDAQGM:SSRI | 06May11 | 30.15 USD | +0.81 | +2.76 |
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All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
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