Saturday 11 June 2011
Bob Chapman - Disc gold Silver Trading 10 june 2011
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End of QE2: Bernanke Test Gold Prices
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com, argues that the end of QE2 is Benanke's way of testing the gold market and measuring inflationary fears.
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Chart of the Day - EUR/USD
Chart of the Day - EUR/USD
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Chart of the Day - EUR/USD
EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (6/10/2011) has continued its bearish stance of the last two days after attempting but failing to break 1.4700 to the upside earlier in the week. This continued bearishness now constitutes a bonafide breakdown of the steep uptrend that has been in place since late May. A key downside support target on this breakdown resides around the 1.4250 price region, which is not only an important prior support/resistance level, but also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the two-week bullish run from the lows around 1.4000 to the highs around 1.4700. In the event of continued bearish momentum that further breaks down below the noted 1.4250 support, the key downside target to watch is clearly around the 1.4000 psychological level, which has served as an exceptionally strong support/resistance level and price target in the recent past.
(Please click on the chart to enlarge. Chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta and purple.)
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
A Mystical Number Predicts a Major Turn
A Mystical Number Predicts a Major Turn
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
A Mystical Number Predicts a Major Turn
Although there is no major market peaking or bottoming dramatically right now, we still see price structures in the currency markets involved in reversal affairs. The Swiss franc, for instance, is approaching a high against the US dollar, as are the Australian dollar or the New Zealand dollar, although less exuberant both. This means we need to watch the dollar as we move into the crucial date.
"The debt crisis will get worse over the next 4.3 years into 2016 and that we are more likely than not going to see rising interest rates."
Martin Armstrong, who discovered the cycle, explains in a recent essay that "... markets that tend to be approaching highs are the interest rate markets. This tends to suggest that the debt crisis will get worse over the next 4.3 years into 2016 and that we are more likely than not going to see rising interest rates regardless of what the governments wish to create." Indeed, if Southern European countries break away for the deflation imported by having adopted the Euro, with the resulting economic debt chaos, the dollar would be favored.
The cycles logic would suggest, in the case of metals, that a high for gold on June 13th/14th with a low in the dollar would signal a reversal in both markets. However, gold may remain range bound in higher levels, pausing it's trend when priced in dollars, only to resume the primary trend after the temporary consolidation.
The Theory:
Some of the biggest investors out there view cycle theories with respect, and factor cycles
into their financial commitments. Investors use cycles as an overlay to shape their big pictures of the financial world and to remind themselves that there is always a reversion to the mean.
Armstrong ’s model, focuses on those markets showing a exuberant personality, those with the greates concentration of capital in one sector, and tracks the footprints of money around the world. When capital shifts it's attention, it behaves like water: it goes where it encounters the least resistance, leaving behind big financial panics.
"Capital behaves like water: it goes where it encounters the least resistance, leaving behind big financial panics."
Armstrong was the one to observe the shifts in capital flows hit the markets every 8.6 years across many asset classes. The estimate of magnitude seemed to revolve around periods of 51.6 years, which nests a series of 6 business cycles of 8.6 years each. Armstrong revealed that the business cycle concept can be backtested into ancient history going back to the Greek and Rome empires and all monetary systems that followed.
For More GoTo:
Keiser Report: GIABO! (E154)
Jun 9, 2011
This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, report on thieves, hustlers, bankers and a Saudi prince. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Rick Falkvinge of the Swedish Pirate Party, about copyright and hot war between hackers and NATO.
USD/EUR - Jun 6 -10 charts
Euro Falls Sharply as Greece Aid Package Uncertain – Risks High
Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral
- Euro at risk as Greece remains mired in crisis
- Euro falls noticeably as traders sell following ECB
- Euro zone calendar has few highlights, but watch the top events in forex markets
The euro fell sharply on further turmoil for Greece and broader euro zone stability, failing to move higher on hawkish commentary from European Central Bank president Jean Claude Trichet and standing at risk of further declines. Trichet used his trademark “Strong Vigilance” phrase to virtually guarantee that the bank would raise rates at its July meeting. The effect was initially euro-bullish, but the rally was short-lived as concerns mount over Greek government solvency and contagion to broader periphery nations.
A relatively limited week of European economic event risk leaves the EURUSD to trade off of moves in broader financial markets, but it will be critical to listen to any and all commentary on a second fiscal aid package for Greece. ECB President Trichet made headlines when he unequivocally denied the possibility of an ECB-sanctioned Greek debt restructuring. He went as far to say that the central bank would no longer accept Greek debt as collateral for loans on a debt restructuring—a shot across the bow to those that believe it will be a solution for the Greek sovereign debt crisis.
Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble defied the ECB chief when he said that a restructuring of privately-held Greek debt would be a requirement for a bailout, and officials are set for a showdown on the clear disagreement. It seems a foregone conclusion that the embattled Greek treasury will need assistance but clear uncertainty on the “how” and “who” has only further destabilized market sentiment. Indeed, the cost to insure against Greek sovereign credit default (Credit Default Swaps) surged to a fresh record high amidst the uncertainty.
All told, Greece represents a relatively small percentage of the total euro zone and even a debt default would cause arguably little direct damage to the EMU. Yet its effect on broader confidence in the viability of the currency union would substantial and the risk remains that of contagion. Can Greece’s troubles reignite fears over Ireland, Portugal, and worse still—Spain and Italy? The spread between Spanish 10-year debt yields and the equivalent German benchmark trades near its widest since the inception of the euro. At approximately 9 percent of euro zone GDP, it would be significantly more difficult to aid the Spanish economy should it fall under similar stress. This will be an important point of contention going forward, and one gets the sense that Greek issues could have a domino effect on the broader EMU.
Debt concerns have had a negative effect on broader financial market risk appetite, and indeed the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has posted its worst 6-week performance since 2002. Given sharp week-to-week swings in market sentiment, it is difficult to take a lasting bias on the Euro/US Dollar. Yet a continuation of recent market concerns and DJIA declines would benefit the safe-haven US Dollar and hurt the euro. It will be critical to monitor risk sentiment in the week ahead and how it affects key forex pairs. – DR
DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.
DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market. Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Friday's Analytical Charts for Gold and Silver - kitco.com
http://www.kitco.com/reports/template_jimw.htm
Friday's Analytical Charts for Gold and Silver
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Friday's Analytical Charts for Gold and Silver
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Gold Prices Could Rally Next Week - kitco.com
METALS OUTLOOK: Gold Prices Could Rally Next Week If Dollar Gains Fizzle
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
(Kitco News) - Gold prices could rally next week if Friday’s gains in the U.S. dollar fizzle out, market participants said.
Also, if fears regarding the European-debt situation build, that will increase gold’s safe-haven allure, which might offset dollar strength if the greenback manages to hold firm.
Silver, meanwhile, is likely to stay range-bound as it is does not have the safe-haven allure gold does, plus it could find additional weight from a slowing global economy which would limit the industrial use of the metal.
Silver, meanwhile, is likely to stay range-bound as it is does not have the safe-haven allure gold does, plus it could find additional weight from a slowing global economy which would limit the industrial use of the metal.
August gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,529.20 an ounce, down 0.81% on the week, while July silver futures settled at $36.327 an ounce, down 0.37% on the week.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 21 responded this week. Of those 21 participants, 14 see prices up, while three see prices down and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Gold prices fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar was broadly higher. Support for prices came from renewed euro-zone woes.
BNP Paribas said the euro couldcome under pressure in the days ahead, citing heightened concerns over sovereign debt issues. The bank said although the Greek cabinet has signed off of the latest round of planned austerity measures, the Greek opposition party has not and the public continues to protest. They also noted a story in theWall Street Journal included more details regarding a EUR1 billion covered bond issue backed by Spanish regional debt that failed to sell last week. “With investors already cautious, the potential for contagion is clear,” BNP Paribas said.
The euro-debt story will be front and center in the near-term and will likely drive currency moves, they said. “It may not be long before U.S. debt ceiling concerns knock the euro peripheral debt crisis out of the spotlight, but this is likely to be a late June/July story, not one for the next week or two,” they added.
Commerzbank said despite the euro’s weakness, precious metals prices have still made strong gains. “In gold's case, its character as a safe haven and store of value is clearly overweighing the prospect of higher interest rates and therefore opportunity costs of holding gold. The price of gold should therefore remain well supported,” they said.
Jimmy Tintle, analyst at Transworld Futures, said part of the dollar’s strength came from currency options expiration and that the dollar was benefitting from short-covering, rather than outright new buying. He said Monday’s action in the dollar will be telling for short-term direction.
“We’ll see whether or not we get any carry through on this rally,” he said.
Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures, said in addition to dollar strength, weakness in crude oil and grains pressured gold. “You had the two markets most influenced by inflation come off,” which weighed on gold, he said.
The dollar strength is likely temporary, Nedoss said, and because of that, gold prices could go higher next week. He said late in the day, gold prices moved off their lows even as the dollar’s gains held and that was a bullish sign for the metal.
For next week, the inflation story will return as the U.S. producer and consumer price index reports will be released and that could underpin gold, too, he said.
Tintle said support for gold comes in around $1,520, with $1,500 the next area for support. He said he is neutral on gold’s direction in the short-term, but said if the market can hold and rally, it could try and test $1,570. That’s just shy of the all-time nominal high of around $1,577.
Gold could be range-bound until the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the end of the month, he said. The market is likely waiting to see what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say regarding the quantitative easing program, which is slated to end this month. Market participants are waiting to see if he will conduct another stimulus program in light of slowing economic growth.
Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group, said it’s not unusual to gold to drift around in June and July and this could be the pattern this year, too, and that could mean steady to weaker prices.
He acknowledges that 2011 is not a typical trading year and the U.S. economy is doing poorly. That said, the main forces driving trading are already in the market.
“I don’t see anything abnormal going on right now that should impact the ‘norm.’ The markets already know about the U.S. hitting its debt ceiling, sovereign debt issues in Europe, war in Libya, Yemen being out of control, Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia splitting on oil output issues and so on. In other words while there can always be an unknown force coming into play, the above plays are known,” Epstein said.
However, he added, after the summer winds down, gold prices could rally sharply, which has been the pattern for the metal since 2001, except for 2008.
“Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. It is but a tool traders should use in their trading arsenal. (Except) for 2008, gold has displayed a strong seasonal tendency to move higher after the June-July time frame. It’s unimportant to me why it didn’t rally in 2008 since there’s ‘always’ some event that can alter the norm of things,” he said.
Regarding silver, Tintle said there’s little reason for silver to escape its current range between $34 to $38. “I’m pretty neutral toward silver until at least late June/early July,” he said.
Fundamental news is lacking and with thoughts that global growth is slowing, silver is tied down by being considered more for its industrial use than for any safe-haven aspect, he said. He noted that silver has not been able to break above $38, while buying interest surfaces when prices slip to the $34 to $35. “That shows that $35 is a pretty good price for silver,” Tintle said, adding he does not see the metal breaking the lows from the sharp sell-off in May. That figure comes in around $32.30.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
Stock Sell-Off: It’s the Dollar Again....
Stock Sell-Off: It’s the Dollar Again, Dummy!: Macke
By Jeff Macke | Breakout – 8 hours agoMarkets are selling off at an accelerating pace. The catalyst for the drop is being attributed to one-off headwinds, summer lethargy or a soft patch which is setting the stage for an autumn rally. The degree to which I disagree with all of the prior theories is hard to convey without using swear words.
It's the dollar, dummy. Again!
As I said a month or so back, it's the strength of the U.S. dollar causing selling in commodities and stocks. The dollar has been the ugly stepchild of global currency for a long time. This was by U.S. government design. Ironically, it's too much dollar strength we really have to worry about now.
Currencies trade more slowly than other markets, especially commodities. A 1 percent rise in the dollar puts more than 1 percent pressure on commodities and stocks. Small currency moves result in large moves in other markets.
The dollar is now moving higher against the euro. The dollar hasn't "broken out" versus the euro and stocks haven't "broken down" below support. But a rising dollar and falling stocks are looking more likely every day, and it's putting pressure on assets across the board. Crude is down today despite OPEC's apparent determination to limit supply. Commodities are down virtually across the board, with gold (a currency hiding place) strong on a relative basis. Cyclical stocks (reliant on a weak dollar and global growth) are being beaten senseless.
Dollar up, stocks down. I'm not saying "I told you so." But I said it in early May on Breakout, and I'm telling you again now in real-time when it's useful insight: U.S. Dollar strength is very bad for stocks. Stocks will not rally unless or until it takes more than $1.50 to buy a euro. It takes about $1.44 to buy a euro right now, roughly 1% less than it took yesterday. If we get to the $1.30's, stocks will be much lower.
What am I doing about it? Selling stock rallies, keeping the euro/dollar relationship at the top of my quotes and putting off buying tickets to Europe for a trip next winter. Yes, I really am doing all three of those things and have been doing so rather publicly for a long time now.
Think I'm too extreme? There are smart guys like the absolutely must-read Dennis Gartman who are on my side. More "colorful" folks such as the literally irrepressible Don Harrold are watching this as well. If you think I'm emphatic on the implications of a stronger greenback, take a listen to Mr. Harrold in the clip above.
Disagree? Bring it on. Comment below or drop us an email at BreakoutCrew@yahoo.com.
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
110610 - Hyper Report
All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.
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