Friday, 10 June 2011

Titan Machinery - TITN

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000026755

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Market Selloff over?.. Jim Roger

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000026758

skin in the game for the still gives me about a 13 1/2 times multiple on the stock market, jim, which is pretty attractive. the yield would be 7%. i mean, heck, treasury bonds yield 3%. corporate bonds yield 570. therefore, aren't stocks still attractive? well, larry, yes. if things get better. but the world economy is not getting better.especially in america. the only people that are better off in america are the people that are getting the money that the government is throwing out the window. the overall situation in the u.s. is not better, for the rest of us the debt is staggering. we've got serious problems facing us. how about a nice debt ceiling limitation deal?let's say $400 -- $400 billion, $500 billion ceiling. isn't that debt ceiling stuff overrated? i'm taking that out of the stock market equation. larry, $400 billion, $500 billion spending cut is nothing.our deficit is a trillion and a half dollars. that's not going to solve our problems. the debt still goes up by $1 trillion a year. we've got to start someplace. all i'm looking for is a little bit of hope here. a little bit of optimism this evening. by all means. but getting deeper in debt by $1 trillion a year is not optimism as far as i'm concerned. it ain't perfect. but there's talk about tax reform. we're going to get to that later in the show. let me ask you about another thing. m-2, a good measure of the money supply, is suddenly growing the last two or three months at about 8% a year, and cni loans, business loans are suddenly growing at 11% a year over the past three months. is it possible, jimmy, that all that money put into the banking system might now come out on theother side finally, more loans, more money supply, maybe betteractivity? is that possible? anything is possible. what you're saying is it's just going to sit in the bank treasury and keep it in the vaults and do nothing with it? if that's the case, the economy's not going to get much stronger. maybe it's circulating in the economy, finally at long last. larry, if the m-2 numbers are going up, you better buy some silver. you better buy some rice. you better buy some real goods. because inflation's going to continue to get worse.everybody watching your show, larry, knows that there's inflation in the land. protect yourself. what about china, what about india, what about brazil? last round, jim rogers. well, they're all threecutting back and deservedly so. they're cutting interest rates.they're trying to do something about inflation. america says there is no inflation. how can you possibly believe those guys in washington when they say there's no inflation. and everybody else in the world knows there is. jim rogers, hang on a second. we finally got bob dole out of the hurricane. he's the vice chair forfundamental equities. is bob dole really here? where is he? on the phone. bob dole, i'll take you any way you can get you, in person, on the phone, by snail mail, by whatever source. i'm trying to make the case that the correction is coming to an end. i'm trading my bear stripes for a more positive market outlook. what are you thinking, bob, am i in the game here or not? i think maybe a little early in terms of time, larry. but in price i think you're not far away.i think we need some resolution to how much the slowdown in theeconomy is a temporary factor. japan disruption, china slowing,and how much is related to an actual slowdown in final demand. i think it's more of the former and we will have a bigup. it will make another jobs report or two. bob, what's going to cause the economy to pick up in a quarter or two? we're going to have autoproduction once the japanese supply line and production issues slow down, that's going to add as much as a point, some saying a point and a half to the gdp, as that comes to an abrupt halt. so we will get some improvement in the economy. we'll not get a robust economy, we'll go back to kind of where we were. two and a half, three if we're fortunate. not 1.8 like in the first quarter. robert, i think it's a jobless recovery. i'm not optimistic about that. in terms of what will drive the economy, or i'm sorry, what will drive the stock market for it, bob, what about pristine balance sheets, phenomenal cash flows that companies have, and even if i take 5%, 6%, 7%, i go from $100 a share down to $93 a share, i still have a fairlycheap multiple in the stock market of about 13 1/2 times earnings.why isn't that a good investment really across the board? i think valuation absolutely gives you a sense of risk reward. i'm not sure it tells you when to buy or sell stocks. i agree, we just need someconfidence, so corporations put some of that cash to work. as you know, corporate america generated a half trillion dollars of surplus free cash flow last year, and that's sitting on the balance sheets.so if we can unleash some of that, some confidence, we will have increases in dividends, shares, buybacks. i think that will will take a little more time. would you invest all your money in jimmy rogers'commodities play? he's been selling me commodities tonight.would you invest all your money there? look, global growth is stillhappening. and i think commodities are the beneficiary of that.again, like equities, i think it's going to take a little more time before people have confidence to go back in. but we've not seen a high for commodities in this cycle in my view. see, he agrees with you, jim rogers. i just want to poke a little bit at your thesis. what if the dollar goes up rather than down, james? larry, even if the dollar goes up, we have shortages of everything developing. larry, the inventories of food are the lowest in recorded history. the average age of farmers in america is 58 years old, larry. in ten years they're going to be 68 and not producing very much. we have serious shortages facing us in agriculture. go home and buy some rice. i'm going to buy some rice. i'm going to buy some oil.no, i'm not going to buy oil. we're producing more oil and gasthrough shale more than ever before. bob doll sort of endures mycorrection is nearly over. we'll see. thanks to both of you. coming up on kudlow, good

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Singapore Economy: CNBC Guest Blog Michael Yoshikami: Singapore Banks Take Center Stage - CNBC

It’s a tiny dot on the map, smaller than the state of Rhode Island. Singapore may be small, but over the past four decades it has proven that geographic size does not matter. This country is a giant in Emerging Asia.

I’m making another trip to Asia today, and my first stop is Singapore.

Every time I arrive in Singapore, this city-state’s economic achievements never cease to amaze me. Initiatives set in motion 10 years ago to transform Singapore into a global city and diversify its economy are now paying off. It’s currently one of the world’s fastest growing economies, with a strong, stable currency, reasonable market valuations, and a financial sector that’s one of the most robust in the world.

I will be speaking at an investors forum expected to draw several thousand attendees hosted by OCBC. Nouriel Roubini, Dr. Doom, will be speaking as well and he and I will be together during a question and answer session with attendees. Should be very interesting.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, savvy investors are looking for bank stability and quality rather than high-growth, margined companies. These desirable qualities can be found in Singapore’s banks.

Stephen Studd | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images

Singapore

The top three banks, OCBC, Development Bank of Singapore, and United Overseas Bank are well established and positioned to reap the benefits of regional growth.

And the philosophy of senior management appears to embrace conservative practices. In fact, OCBC was recently named in a banking survey as the safest bank in the world. Additionally, it's innovative and relationship based practices have enabled the bank to increase its market share in this very competitive region. Such is the respect that the financial community has for select Asian regional banks.

Jim Rogers: U.S. Is Now Largest Debtor Nation in the History of the Worl...

Fixing America's Economy... Businessweek.com

COVER STORY June 8, 2011, 11:30PM EST

b4233053223432.htm

Fixing America's Economy: Nine Ideas from Around the World

Countries as diverse as Germany, Brazil, Singapore, and Thailand can offer ways for the U.S. to shore up its economy

By Peter Coy

Democrats and Republicans are dug in like soldiers at Verdun over what to do about the sputtering U.S. economy. Exhausted by the political stalemate, they've been reduced to magical thinking, hoping that things will eventually get better by themselves. But time isn't on America's side. The country is suffering its highest average duration of unemployment since at least 1948. "The longer this goes on, the greater the danger that the cyclical downturn becomes structural. People and things that lie idle start to lose their productive value. Then you're into all sorts of troubles," says Karen Ward, senior global economist at HSBC Holdings (HBC) in London.

It may finally be time for Americans to consider ideas from a place that they don't usually look to for inspiration: the rest of the planet. The U.S.'s economic predicament does present some unique dilemmas. The Obama Administration has already pushed hard on the levers that countries usually use to get out of a slump, to little discernible effect. Short-term interest rates are near zero and fiscal stimulus is aggressive, judging from a budget deficit of about 10 percent of gross domestic product. David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, a Toronto-based wealth-management firm, says of the U.S.: "We're basically in uncharted territory."

Maybe so. But there are guideposts that can help point the way out. The U.S., after all, is not the first country to wrestle with how to restart growth despite budget deficits that constrain big-spending solutions. The challenge is how to apply lessons from other countries to shore up American weaknesses, without sacrificing the strengths that make the U.S., for all its troubles, the world's biggest economy.

To prod the conversation forward, Bloomberg Businessweek scanned the world and found innovative economic ideas in countries as diverse as Germany, Brazil, Singapore, and Thailand that are applicable to America's mess. The focus was on short-term solutions, but since there aren't a whole lot of miracle fixes to be had, we also considered some longer-term reforms that create a better environment for years of sustainable growth.

There's no guarantee that all of these ideas would work in an American context. But it's clear that some fresh, non-ideological thinking is needed. Says Dow Chemical (DOW) Chief Executive Officer Andrew N. Liveris, a Greek-Australian-American and author of the book Make It in America: The Case for Re-Inventing the Economy: "People in the U.S. confuse big government and small government as the only two models. What we need is smart government." By that he means government that puts business objectives ahead of politics. "Countries are competing like companies more and more," says Liveris, "In the U.S., we haven't caught up." Here are nine ideas from the rest of the world to get America back in the race.

From: Germany
Idea: Minimize Mortgages
Germany has one of the lowest homeownership rates among wealthy nations—around 46 percent, vs. two-thirds in the U.S.—and also one of the most stable housing markets. Prices of owner-occupied housing in Germany are up 9 percent since 2003, according to the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks.

What's the German formula? Housing is less vulnerable to booms and busts because only highly qualified buyers can get a mortgage. Down payments are usually at least 20 percent, often 40 percent. Mortgage interest is not tax-deductible, as it is in the U.S., which also discourages excessive leverage. Germans are justly proud of their Pfandbrief, an ultrasafe bond whose collateral is a set of standardized mortgages whose loan-to-value ratio can't exceed 60 percent. The bank that sells a mortgage-backed Pfandbrief to investors retains all the risk of default, giving it the incentive to underwrite cautiously.

The lesson for the U.S.? Tougher lending rules would help lower the risk of another housing crash. And in the long run, Americans may have to accept a lower homeownership rate to pay for taking the boom and bust out of the market.

From: Brazil
Idea: Pay the Poor
On June 2, President Dilma Rousseff announced a plan called Brasil Sem Miséria (Brazil Without Poverty) that aims to lift 16 million people out of extreme poverty, defined as household income of $45 or less per month. The plan calls for providing the poor with job training, legal documentation, electricity, literacy, medical treatment, day care, and sanitation. Even garbage pickers are covered: The program aims to integrate them into municipalities' recyclable collection.

America's poor are rich compared with Brazil's, but growing income inequality poses dangers to the U.S.'s economic health. "Some poor people are so far behind that they can't open the doors" to opportunity, says Brazilian Executive Secretary for Social Development Rômulo Paes, a physician with a PhD in epidemiology. Improving coordination of anti-poverty policies would help more low-income Americans get back on their feet and give a boost to the recovery.

From: Turkey
Idea: Open the Doors
Is America still a land of opportunity for foreign investors? By some measures, yes. Foreign direct investment in U.S. companies, factories, mines, and land was nearly $200 billion in 2010, above its average for the preceding decade. Yet compared with Turkey, the U.S. looks unwelcoming. Turkey's Investment Support and Promotion Agency serves as a single point of contact for all permits, licenses, and land acquisition. It coordinates specialized training for the workers that multinational companies need and arranges for upfront tax breaks. Its staff can communicate in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Russian, and Spanish, as well as Turkish.

Dow Chemical CEO Liveris calls the agency a role model. "Today the U.S. is perceived as a risky place to do business by foreign companies," he says. Dow recently announced a joint venture with a Turkish company to make carbon fiber and derivatives for use in wind turbines and the like. A Turkey-style mix of tax incentives, language and job-training services, and legal assistance might persuade more foreign firms to invest in the U.S., creating jobs.

From: Canada
Idea: A Worthwhile Tax
With the 2012 Presidential election looming, the idea of springing any new taxes on the American public verges on heresy. But digging out of our fiscal hole will require the government to find ways to increase tax revenues one way or the other. For a start, look north. Unlike the U.S., Canada has a national sales tax—the Goods and Services Tax, currently levied at 5 percent. Consumption taxes such as these are less harmful than a tax on wages and salaries (which discourages work) or a tax on investment (which discourages saving). Livio Di Matteo, an economist at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ont., believes the U.S. could go a long way toward solving its budget problems with a national sales tax and a fatter gasoline tax. "The U.S. is a rich country," he says, "and its deficit situation is more a political rather than economic problem." Consumption taxes might be one "worthwhile Canadian initiative" that's worth a closer look.

From: China
Idea: Go Green
Looking to China for economic lessons is a fraught proposition. China's authoritarian system allows the central government to play a role unimaginable in the U.S. Borrowing selectively from Beijing's playbook, however, can help revitalize American industry. China's 12th Five-Year Plan commits the country to world leadership in seven leading-edge industries, many of them connected to clean energy and the environment. An article released by the government's Xinhua News Agency cited unnamed analysts' estimates that investment in environmental protection alone will exceed 3 trillion yuan—about half a trillion dollars—from 2011 to 2015. By contrast, government-funded research and development in the U.S. is heavily tilted toward the National Institutes of Health. Innovations in the health sector may extend lives, but they could, perversely, increase health-care costs by producing costly new drugs and devices—while delivering a smaller commercial payoff than the green industries on which China is focusing.

From: Australia
Idea: Give the Kids a Break
Beginning July 1, Australian pensioners will get improved "work bonuses" to find part-time jobs or stay longer in the workforce. Matthew Weinzierl, an economist at Harvard Business School, likes Australia's idea of varying tax rates by age, but he'd do it differently: Have tax rates rise steadily from age 25 to age 55. By paying lower taxes when they're young and more when they reach middle age, Americans would essentially borrow from their older, richer selves. Weinzierl didn't focus on the older workers targeted by Australia because he didn't want to complicate the analysis with retirement decisions.

The HBS economist estimates that varying income tax rates by age would generate social-welfare gains equaling 0.6 percent to 1.5 percent of annual U.S. consumption. That's in the range of $100 billion a year. A more efficient tax code would also encourage people to work more, generating wealth. But Weinzierl cautions that age-based tax rates won't end the slump: The big problem now is there's not enough work to be done.

From: Thailand
Idea: Cheap Rooms!
To get its economy going again in 2009, Thailand doubled the tax deduction for domestic hotel stays as a way to encourage people to get out and spend money. It was only a small part of Thailand's recovery package, but it caught people's attention. In an e-mail, Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij says, "These measures helped with morale and 'bought time' for us to do 2 things: 1) employ the main stimulus measures which were investment-based and, 2) wait for export demand to pick up thru global recovery, which they did." The U.S. has already resorted to similar gimmicks to goose demand: The 2009 stimulus package included, among other things, tax breaks for purchases of RVs. But the slow recovery suggests that American consumers need more incentives to spend.

From: Singapore
Idea: Keep Workers Working
The famously efficient city-state was uniquely vulnerable to the worldwide economic downturn because it depends on global trade, which dropped off sharply. Yet Singapore's unemployment rate topped out in 2009 at just 3.3 percent. One factor was the Jobs Credit program, which pays employers to keep people on the payroll until demand revives. Other countries with similar programs include Belgium, Finland, Germany, and Japan.

That's not all Singapore does. Its SPUR (Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience) pays companies to train workers while they are idle instead of laying them off. Some workers are trained for jobs in fields their employer isn't even in. The government guides entire industries toward the future it envisions for them, says G. Jayakrishnan, Americas group director in New York for International Enterprise Singapore, a trade promotion agency.

Such a paternalistic government role would be tough for American companies to stomach. Yet in Singapore, says Jayakrishnan, "it really puts the country and the economy on the right side of things when the economy begins to pick up."

From: Israel
Idea: Swords Into Software
The U.S. is by far the world's largest spender on the military and intelligence. But the Pentagon could learn something from Israel about how to convert defense dollars into commercial products that can benefit the broader economy. Veterans of a single unit of the Israeli Defense Forces' Intelligence Corps have launched such successful ventures as Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP), the network security software company; ICQ, the pioneer of instant messaging; and NICE Systems, which detects fraud. The secretive operation, called Unit 8200, serves as the corps's technology intelligence unit. Ido Aharoni, Israel's consul general in New York, says the closest thing America has is DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. But no one in the Pentagon is responsible for getting commercial bang for military bucks. That makes it fertile ground for improvement.

Coy is Bloomberg Businessweek's Economics editor.

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