Thursday, 2 June 2011

love gold. Gold and silver turning up - Puru Saxena - Interview

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page96990?oid=127744&sn=2010+Detail&pid=92730

Hate paper money, love gold. Gold and silver turning up - Puru Saxena

Hong Kong based Puru Saxena sees Eastern precious metals demand continuing and rising as wealth grows - and sees the recent downturn in prices reversing.

Interviewer: Geoff Candy
Posted:  Tuesday , 24 May 2011 



All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Mineweb.com -China`s increased dominance of global commodities market carries risk-S&P - POLITICAL ECONOMY | Mineweb

Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website China`s increased dominance of global commodities market carries risk-S&P - POLITICAL ECONOMY | Mineweb


http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=128450&sn=Detail&pid=92730
As China becomes the dominant presence in global commodities markets, S&P feels downside scenarios are unlikely to occur, "but the shocks will be felt around the commodities world."
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Thursday , 02 Jun 2011

RENO, NV -
Standard & Poor's expressed concerns Wednesday that record commodity prices could represent an "unsustained bubble, subject to a sudden correction."
In their report, The Potential Risk of China's Large and Growing Presence in Commodities Market, S&P credit analysts noted, "Market bubbles inevitably burst, although they are much easier to recognize in hindsight."
Nevertheless, the analysts anticipate that China will sustain high growth rates over the next few years, albeit with some moderation from recent levels.
S&P estimated that China's consumption of refined copper grew at a compound annual growth rate of almost 16% over the past five years. By contrast, global copper demand, excluding China has declined 2.1%. Meanwhile, China's share of total world copper consumption reached 39% in 2010, making China the world's largest copper-consuming nation.
"We expect that with moderating economic growth in China, and with government-backed electrification projects having run their course, copper consumption growth in China could decelerate to a level somewhat below overall GDP growth over the next several years-to a still robust 6%-8% per year," said the analysts.
Nonetheless, China's share of world market copper consumption is still expected to well exceed 40%.
Although China is expected to bring additional mining and refining capacity online over the next few years, S&P still anticipates that copper consumption will continue to outpace domestic production.
Meanwhile, China has surpassed the United States as the world's largest consumer of primary aluminum, accounting for about 43% of global consumption.
With an estimated 17 million to 18 million tons of domestic smelting capacity, China is now an exporter of aluminum ingots and alloys. China is expected to start up new smelters with production capacity totaling more than 5 million tons annually over the next three years.
In their analysis, S&P observed that if all of China's older aluminum smelters remain in service as new smelters come on line, "China could end up with excess supply, which producers would like try to export."
The substantial amount of still-idled aluminum smelting capacity globally "puts some constraints of price increases because, as prices rise, it makes sense economically for producers to restart even with some of the less-efficient capacity," the analysts advised.
As is the case with copper and aluminum, Chinese steel consumption has significantly outstripped steel demand from the rest of the world. China is now the world's largest steel consumer, accounting for 42% of global consumption last year.
However, China is also the world's largest steel producer and exporter, accounting for 44% of global steel production. S&P observed that the Chinese steel industry is still catching up with more developed countries in technology to produce specialty steel products, such as those used in the automotive sector.
S&P expects China to sustain steel consumption growth in the range of 6%-8% annually, compared with other world demand growth in the range of 2%-4%.
As may be anticipated, growth in China's consumption of coking coal and iron ore has tracked its steel production, according to the analysts.
"In part that's because, compared with other major steel-producing countries, China, similar to India and Korea, has a greater than typical dependence on iron ore and coking coal, because its steelmaking capacity is heavily skewed toward the integrated process," S&P noted. "Thus China accounts for a disproportionate share of world iron ore and coking coal demand, accounting for 60% and 52% of world consumption, respectively, in 2010."
While China continues to invest in expansion of its domestic iron ore and coking coal mining capacity, it relies to a large extent on foreign markets, importing more than half of the amount it uses for each of these raw materials. As China suffering from declining iron ore grades domestically and lacks deposits of high-quality coking coal, it has caused a number of Chinese companies to purchase existing or developing iron ore properties outside of the country.
"Prices in the spot market have weakened somewhat in recent months in response to the pause in recovery of steel consumption and resumption of production that was disrupted for weather-related reasons," S&P observed.
Economic Slowdown Would Brake Commodities Consumption
In their analysis, S&P foresees "a range of hypothetical scenarios that could lead to an abrupt deceleration of the Chinese economy and a negative effect on commodity prices. Some emanate outward from China; others originate elsewhere."
S&P views Chinese government policymakers' "continued reliance on a centralized macroeconomic management as a credit weakness of China." If administrative measures are based on untimely or inaccurate analyses of the economic situation, "they could have abrupt or unpredictable effects."
If the gradual changes Chinese policymakers have adopted to mitigate economic slowdown risks begin to increase in size or speed, the analysts fear "significant economic volatility could result."
"In such a scenario, demand for commodities could fall precipitously as investment is curtailed," S&P suggested.
Nevertheless, S&P observed that "concern about the potential consequences of a sharp downturn in China appears far from the minds of most commodity industry players."
"Instead, the more prevalent worry seems to be over the extent of market strains resulting from having to ‘feed the dragon,' given the ongoing worldwide capacity expansion that will be necessary to accommodate Chinese demand," the analysts said. While commodities producers have reaped surging earnings and operating cash flow, most of their earnings have been plowed back into capacity expansion.
A rapid deceleration of China's consumption of these commodities "could quickly leave the global markets beset by excess supply," said the analysts.

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Bob chapman on DGS Radio 01 june 2011



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Gold N Silver chart...

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29

01 JUNE 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts










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YouTube - Markets swoon on double dip fears.flv



All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

TheSpec - Stock markets tumble on worries about economic...

TheSpec - Stock markets tumble on worries about economic...


Stock markets tumble on worries about economic recovery



  • Malcolm Morrison
  • 29 minutes ago
  • The gold sector also gave up ground even as the August gold contract in New York moved ahead $6.40 to US$1543.20 an ounce. Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) faded 34 cents to C$46.05. Further evidence that the US recovery is slowing down and Europe's debt ...
The Toronto stock market tumbled almost 2 per cent as a sell-off across all sectors was triggered by further evidence that the U.S. economy is faltering.
The S&P/TSX composite index fell 275 points to 13,527.88 amid big disappointments on the U.S. employment and manufacturing fronts and the TSX Venture Exchange dropped 27.05 points to 2,067.42.
Bad news from Canada’s largest trading partner and lower oil prices pushed the Canadian dollar down 0.75 of a cent to 102.49 cents US.
New York markets also retreated with the Dow Jones industrial average plunging 279.65 points to 12,290.14.
The Nasdaq composite index was 66.11 points lower to 2,769.19 while the S&P 500 index lost 30.65 points to 1,314.55.
“It looks like this recovery has hit its second ‘soft patch’, which for a recovery that is less than two years old is troubling,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics.
Private payrolls firm ADP said that the U.S. private sector created only 38,000 jobs during May. That was far less than analyst estimates of about 175,000 new jobs in the United States, about the same reading as April.
The ADP data came out two days before the release of the U.S. government’s nonfarm payrolls report for May.
Economists had expected that U.S. government data Friday will show that around 200,000 jobs were added during May, slightly down on April’s 244,000 increase. But some analysts were revising that figure sharply lower in light of the ADP report.
“This is a very weak result, and puts substantial downside risk to Friday’s nonfarm figure,” said BMO Capital Markets senior economist Jennifer Lee.
The latest reading on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector also surprised traders. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index dropped to 53.5 in May from the previous month’s 60.4 reading, much lower than the 57 reading that economists had expected.
But Allan Small, senior investment adviser with Dundee Wealth, said that he thinks the environment isn’t as bad as the recent data suggest.
“Obviously the Japanese tsunami and the shutdown of Japan during March and April has weighed in on the ADP numbers that came out and also the ISM numbers.”
The massive earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on March 11 caused huge cuts in industrial production and disrupted the global supply chain, partly because of severe power shortages.
The energy sector was down 2.88 per cent as oil prices further weakened following the release of the U.S. data. The July contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped $2.41 to US$100.29 a barrel. Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) dropped $1.69 to C$40.48 while Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) dropped $1.59 to $34.21.
The metals and mining sector was down 2.48 per cent after data showed China’s manufacturing sector easing in April. The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported that its purchasing managers index, or PMI, fell to 52.9 in April, down from 53.4 in March.
Signs of a weaker Chinese economy helped push the July copper contract down seven cents to US$4.11 a pound. China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper. Teck Resources (TSX:TCK.B) dropped $1.88 to C$48.94 and Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) lost 15 cents to $7.05.
The financial sector was also a major weight, down 2.48 per cent after two of the big Canadian banks were downgraded.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Andre-Phillipe Hardy has cut his ratings for both CIBC (TSX:CM) and National Bank (TSX:NA) to sector perform from outperform. He cited long-range expectations that revenue growth will decelerate in Canada, improve in the United States, and be stronger overall in emerging markets than in North America.
CIBC gave back $2.77 to $77.54 while National Bank fell $1.92 to $79.03.
Intact Financial Corp. (TSX:IFC) shares gained $4.85 to $54.62 after it announced Tuesday that it is buying insurer AXA Canada for $2.6 billion in cash.
The gold sector also gave up ground even as the August gold contract in New York moved ahead $6.40 to US$1,543.20 an ounce. Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) faded 34 cents to C$46.05.
Further evidence that the U.S. recovery is slowing down and Europe’s debt crisis, particularly whether Greece will get more emergency loans, have dominated market attention over recent weeks and left the TSX down about 140 points during May trading.
Worries about a Greek default were on traders’ minds Wednesday afternoon after Moody’s Investors Service cut Greece’s sovereign rating to Caa1 from B1 and assigned a negative outlook to the ratings.
The agency cited increased risk that Greece will fail to stabilize its debt position, without a debt restructuring.
One bright spot on the TSX was Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B). The transportation giant reported its first-quarter profits rose to US$220 million while revenues rose to $4.7 billion. Shares in the train and aircraft maker ran ahead 20 cents to $6.95 as the company also announced a firm order for 10 of its CSeries aircraft, with a list price of US$665 million, from a Swedish leasing company.
In other corporate news, clothing retailer Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSX:RET.A) earned $624,000 or a penny per share in the quarter ended April 30. That compared with a profit of $15.8 million or 23 cents per share a year ago. Sales in the quarter slipped to $219.3 million from $235.7 million, while same store sales fell 8.7 per cent due to increased discounts and promotions. Reitmans shares fell $1.28 to $16.47.
Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR.B), the Halifax airline formerly known as Jazz Air, said Tuesday its net profits fell to $14.7 million or 12 cents a share for the three months ended March 31. That compared with earnings of $16.4 million a year earlier. Operating revenues rose nearly 25 per cent to $443 million from $355.4 million and its shares climbed 33 cents to $5.16.
The Peruvian government has decided to suspend an environmental assessment at Bear Creek Mining’s (TSXV:BCM) Santa Ana property for 12 months to allow the political situation in the region to stabilize, the junior miner announced Wednesday. Its shares gained 34 cents to $6.40.
The Canadian Press



All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Jun '11 gold futures are up $0.30, or 0.02%, at$1,542.70

http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/commodities/commodities.asp



Market Summary

At 7:44 PM ET:  Jun '11 light sweet crude futures are down $0.34, or0.34%, at $99.95 a barrel in after-hours Nymex electronic trading. Jun '11 gold futures are up $0.30, or 0.02%, at$1,542.70 an ounce in after-hours electronic trading. Jul '11 corn futures closed down 1.75 today, or 0.23%, at756.75 cents a bushel.


All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Stocks Drop Sharply on Disappointing Reports

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/business/02markets.html?_r=1
Gloomy reports on jobs, manufacturing and other economic indicators Wednesday sent stocks down more than 2 percent in their biggest declines since last August. Treasury yields fell below 3 percent for the first time this year.





A batch of disappointing economic reports is leading some investors to worry that what appeared to be a short-term slowdown could turn into a longer-lasting downturn.

Signs of slowing growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector and in private-sector employment prompted the biggest one-day sell-off in the U.S. stock market since August, taking the Dow Jones industrial average down 279.65 points, or 2.2%.


All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.