Wednesday 16 November 2011

Lang Xianping: China's Economic Depression Has Begun



by  on Nov 7, 2011
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On October 22, Lang Xianping, an economics professor
at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, gave a private talk in Shenyang City in Liaoning Province.
He cited statistics showing why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is trapped in an economic crisis and is at brink of bankruptcy.
Some scholars say that Lang's conclusion is not surprising at all,
for they themselves hold the same the view.

Lang Xianping's speech, which was widely circulated online,
pointed out that
the CCP's official published growth rate of 9.1% and
its inflation rate of 6.2%, are false.
Instead he says, China as a nation, is bankrupt.

Lang Xianping: "The 9.1% figure is false.The inflation rate of
6.2% is also false. Inflation has reached at least 16%!
Do you know how to calculate the gross domestic product
(GDP) figure? Nine minus six.
The actual growth rate, according to the CCP's data,
should be less than 3%.
What if the inflation rate was 16%?
What's the GDP growth rate? Minus seven percent. The situation is this serious."

Professor Lang said that all of the CCP's current policies are
covering up the deep, murky reality of China's economy.
He cited the Purchasing Managers Index to explain that
back to early July, China's economy entered a recession.

Lang Xianping: "The Purchasing Managers Index,
which was just released, showed a reading above 50.
This indicates normal economic growth, while below 50
means the country is entering into a recession.
Now among China, the U.S., and Europe, let me tell you,
the first country that has gone into recession is China.
It started in July. But has anyone reported the news?
No. Why? No one is allowed to report it."

Now, China's stock market fell from 3,000 points in April,
to 2,313 points in October.
But other markets such as property, cars, luxury goods,
antiques, and art, among others, are really booming.
The co-existence of such a bleak winter and boiling summer
can only take place in China.
The basic reason is that China's manufacturing Industry crisis
has just begun.

Lang Xianping: "Field research conducted by
The Economic Observer, a weekly Chinese newspaper,
shows that the production rate of the apparel industry
in Jiangsu Prov. and Zhejiang Prov., is less than 33%.
The plastic industry is 50%, the rubber industry is 60%,
the soybeans extraction industry is less than 30%.
My own survey shows that at present,
60% of all Leather-processing plants have shut down in Haining, China."

Professor Lang also cited that although the total capacity of
China's power plants is 916 million kilowatts, the utilization rate is only 40%.
By June 20, the volume of iron ore piled up in China's
various ports has reached 98.9 million tons,
far more than the 7,098 tons imported
during the period of financial crisis of last few years.
This data shows that in reality, in China,
an economic depression has begun.

Lang pointed out that 70% of China's GDP came from
infrastructure construction, which, in reality, has not brought any economic benefits to the country.
For example, before the former Soviet Union collapsed,
70% of its GDP relied on military engineering projects.
The current situation in China is very similar to that of
former Soviet Union, at that time.
Once China's manufacturing industry pillar collapses,
the country's seemingly impressive infrastructure construction, won't last longer.

Category:



All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Econoday Report: Retail Sales November 15, 2011

Econoday Report: Retail Sales November 15, 2011


Retail Sales

Why Investors Care
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.

Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.

Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.

Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.

Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.

In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales.

Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.

Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.

Frequency
Monthly.

Source
Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Availability
Mid-month.

Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.

Revisions
Yes.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446994&cust=mam&wiconly=1#top

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

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Table of Contents


http://traderwizard.com/lessons-from-the-trader-wizard-book

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Recent IPO Pricings - Renaissance Capital

Recent IPO Pricings - Renaissance Capital


Recently Priced IPO Calendar
Company NameTickerOffer DateUnderwriterSharesIPO PriceClosing PriceReturnToday's Price/Change
Clovis OncologyCLVS11/15/11J.P. Morgan10.0$13.00n/aN/A
InvenSenseINVN11/15/11Goldman, Sac10.0$7.50n/aN/A
Chesapeake GraniteCHKR11/10/11Morgan Stanl20.0$19.00$18.92-0.4%$18.92
LRR Energy L.P.LRE11/10/11Wells Fargo9.4$19.00$19.060.3%$19.06
NewLink GeneticsNLNK11/10/11Stifel Nicol6.2$7.00$7.030.4%$7.03
Pacific Drilling SPACD11/10/11Morgan Stanl6.0$8.25$8.351.2%$8.35
ImpervaIMPV11/08/11J.P. Morgan5.0$18.00$25.6542.5%$25.65
GrouponGRPN11/03/11Morgan Stanl35.0$20.00$24.0720.4%$24.07
Rentech NitrogenRNF11/03/11Morgan Stanl15.0$20.00$20.000.0%$20.00
Enduro Royalty TrustNDRO11/02/11Barclays Cap13.2$22.00$20.35-7.5%$20.35
Committed CapitalCCA-U10/27/11Broadband Ca5.8$5.00n/aN/A
ZELTIQZLTQ10/18/11J.P. Morgan7.0$13.00$16.3025.4%$16.30
Ubiquiti NetworksUBNT10/13/11UBS Investme7.0$15.00$19.7131.4%$19.71




Renaissance Capital's Upcoming IPO Calendar

Company Name/TickerUnderwriterPrice Range
Shares
Pricing
Week
Clovis Oncology Inc. 
CLVS
J.P. Morgan
Credit Suisse
$13 - $15 
9.3 mil
11/15/11
InvenSense 
INVN
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Morgan Stanley
$7 - $9 
10.0 mil
11/15/11
Bluestem Brands 
BSTM
Piper Jaffray
Wells Fargo Securities
$14 - $16 
10.0 mil
Postponed
LaShou Group
LASO
Barclays Capital
CICC
$13 - $15 
5.4 mil
Postponed
Angies List 
ANGI
BofA Merrill Lynch
Allen & Company
$11 - $13 
8.8 mil
11/14
Delphi Automotive PLC 
DLPH
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
J.P. Morgan
$22 - $24 
24.1 mil
11/14
Digital Domain Media Group 
DDMG
Roth Capital
Morgan Joseph
$10 - $12 
5.5 mil
11/14
Intermolecular 
IMI
Morgan Stanley
J.P. Morgan
$12 - $14 
10.0 mil
11/14
Manning & Napier 
MN
BofA Merrill Lynch
J.P. Morgan
$15 - $17 
12.5 mil
11/14
Mattress Firm Holding 
MFRM
Barclays Capital
UBS Investment Bank
$17 - $19 
5.6 mil
11/14

Notes:
LaShou Group - *Postponed due to a yet-to-be-disclosed corporate action, according to Barclays Capital
http://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPOHome/Calendars/OnDeck.aspx

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.