Thursday 31 March 2011
Wednesday 30 March 2011
CHART OF THE DAY: SILVER COIN MANIA
Joe Weisenthal | Mar. 30, 2011, 8:48 AM
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-silver-coin-sales-2011-3#ixzz1I5psWdlL
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-silver-coin-sales-2011-3#ixzz1I5psWdlL
By now you know that the surge in silver prices has left gold in the dust.
One reason: it's just cheaper to buy silver coins.
From Deutsche Bank:
According to a recent article in the Financial Times, record sales have been recorded at the world’s leading mints over the past several quarters; with sales being rationed in some instances. Silver dealers have indicated that smaller investors see silver as a more affordable alternative to gold as they look to alternative assets for wealth preservation, worried about the outlook for inflation and currency value. Figure 1 shows rolling 12-month demand for one-ounce American Eagle coins; indicating sales of over 38m oz over the past 12-month period. Annualising sales for the first two months of 2011 is indicative of over 54m oz in sales.
Buying silver because it's "cheaper" doesn't make a lot of logical sense (intuitively, it looks like buying a stock because it's nominally cheaper), but the data is hard to argue with.
Here's what the surge in coin purchases look like:
StockTwits hires Yahoo! Finance exec as traffic surges
StockTwits hires Yahoo! Finance exec as traffic surges
STOCKTWITS, the investor-focused microblogging service that is attracting a growing number of investor relations users, has hired an executive from Yahoo! Finance to lead product development as traffic to the service has more than doubled in the past three months.
David Putnam joining StockTwits
David Putnam, who for the past five years has been responsible for global product strategy and management for the largest finance website in the world will join StockTwits April 1 as Vice President of Products. In a blog post, Putnam said: “StockTwits is big, getting bigger, and going to be huge.”
His appointment comes just weeks after StockTwits appointedChris Bullock, former senior managing director for global investor relations services at NASDAQ, as its new Vice President of Corporate Services. His focus is on bringing investor relations departments to the StockTwits community.
“We’re superbly excited about the expertise that David and Chris are bringing to StockTwits,” says CEO Howard Lindzon. “We’re experiencing huge interest in StockTwits and these hires show that we are serious about building an outstanding service.”
Quality of community
StockTwits has seen its traffic surge in recent months. According to Quantcast, StockTwits is now reaching more than 465,000 people a month, up from less than 200,000 at the beginning of December.
However, Lindzon points out that StockTwits has never been concerned with the number of users it has, preferring to focus on building a high quality community.
“We actively monitor StockTwits for penny stock spammers and other undesirable elements and are constantly removing them,” he says.
Investor relations is a key market for StockTwits. A growing number of companies have begun using the service to distribute information to investors and answer their questions.
A major attraction of StockTwits for IR departments is that it provides distribution of companies’ messages to Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance, CNN Money and Bing Finance. This added distribution reduces Reg FD risks for companies and their executives.
In a recent interview with IR Web Report, Sean O’Brien, Senior Vice President of Strategy & Communications at PGi (NYSE: PGI), said the quality of the StockTwits community was a key factor in his company choosing to use the service.
Sales Stalwarts: Top 5 IBD 50 Techs By Growth Estimates
| Sales Stalwarts: Top 5 IBD 50 Techs By Growth Estimates |
| By Michael Krey |
| Sat., March 26, '11 1:21 PM ET |
Don’t look now, but Q1 is over on Thursday. (And before I forget, happy 4th of July.) It does fly by, even for a quarter marked by one of the biggest natural disasters of modern times. The Japan quake will continue to have huge ramifications for many. Further down the list in importance will be its impact on a ton of companies. That’s starting to occur, but Q1 nevertheless marked the continued slow recovery from the great recession. For some companies, things are looking up. One of the best measures of that, of course, is sales outlook. Thomson Reuters polls financial analysts on their sales and profit outlooks. For the current quarter, many of the IBD 50 tech stocks are expected to do pretty well in the growth arena. Following are the tech companies on the current IBD 50 rankings of top stocks that are expected to have the biggest year-over-year sales growth in their current quarters, based on the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. They’re ranking by growth rates. 1. Baidu (BIDU). No. 4 on this week’s IBD 50, the China search leader is expected to continue to soar, as it continues to find more and more businesses in China that want to advertise online. Like Google and Microsoft-Yahoo, Baidu sells ads that are strategically placed with specific search results, so the ads are likely to be seen by people who are particularly motivated to click on the ad and maybe buy what’s advertised. Advertisers, no surprise, love that. Analysts forecast 94% sales growth for Baidu this quarter, to nearly $368 million. That’s an amazing rate, but actually down from the previous quarter, when the China juggernaut more than doubled its revenue. The stock just had another good week, buoyed by word that – like Google – it’s working on its own operating system for smartphones. As we reported in a story on Friday, the number of mobile broadband users in China jumped by 43 million in the first half of last year, to 277 million. You just don’t get that sort of growth in other markets. 2. Veeco Instruments (VECO). The maker of machines used to make LED (light-emitting diode) chips is just back on the IBD 50 this week after a long absence – checking in at No. 50, in fact – but what good timing for this particular ranking. The company’s sales this quarter are once again expected to roar, rising 83% to $246 million. That’s huge, but investors should note that it also is down from the three preceding quarters, when year-over-year revenue jumped 152%, 271% and 347%, respectively. The company’s in a good spot, though, as LEDs are used as backlighting for flat-panel TVs, among other things. LEDs use less power than conventional lighting, and last longer, so environmental factors are helping the LED push. So is China, where the government wants its companies to make and use more LEDs, and where companies are buying Veeco machines. Veeco is doing well even as LED chipmaker Cree (CREE) on Wednesday reported a disappointing quarter, saying supply of LEDs is high mainly due to generous subsidies in China, as Reuters reported. 3. OpenTable (OPEN). The company is growing fast, signing up restaurants that want to use its online reservations and other systems for helping restaurants manage and track reservations. As CEO Jeff Jordontold IBD last week, more than 1,000 restaurants now use one of the companies other products. Called Open Connect, it’s a service that steers walk-ins to clients. These clients aren’t as interested in OpenTable’s electronic reservation book, but just want more customers coming in the door. The company’s sales this quarter are expected to jump 58% to $33.5 million. That’s down just a bit from the previous quarter. Of course, since the company is still fairly small, such big revenue jumps occur more often than with really huge companies. Still, it’s quite a number, as given its No. 3 ranking on this list. On the big list, the IBD 50, it’s No. 8. 4. Netflix (NFLX). Well, not only is it a longtime regular among the Top 50, it’s getting hard to do a Top 5 techs without including this company. It’s on one of these little Top 5ers now for the fourth time this year, having made the top Internet stocks rankings two weeks ago. This time, it’s No. 7 on the IBD 50. And it’s No. 4 here because analysts expect sales to rise 43% in the current quarter, to more than $703 million. If it hits that number that would mark the sixth straight quarter of accelerating sales growth: 24%, 25%, 27%, 31%, 34% and then the 43%. Two weeks ago, we pointed out that the stock was showing signs of fatigue, which it was, breaking below the 10-week line. But it’s well above the line now, and in fact is up 22% since March 10, helped by a Goldman Sachs upgrade to buy. It does face pressure, though. Facebook has edged into Netflix-like competition via a partnership with Warner Bros. And cable channel Starz now says it will delay releasing some TV shows to Netflix for 90 days. 5. Aruba Networks (ARUN). Hey, it’s back to No. 1 on the IBD 50 for the first time since Nov. 22. And it ties for No. 5 on this list, with analysts seeing sales up 42% in the current quarter to $98.1 million. That’s down from 50% and 44% the preceding two quarters, but a pretty solid number. In February, when it reported fiscal Q2 numbers for the December quarter, the stock shot up a mere 17% that first day, on better-than-expected results and outlook. This despite the fact that CFO Steffan Tomlinson, a six-year company veteran, said he would resign effective March 31. the company is seeing big growth for its hardware and software to securely control wireless communications going in and out of corporate networks and data centers. It’s No. 2 in its sector, behind only Cisco Systems (CSCO) , the world’s largest network gear company. And, as we reported, it recently rolled out a new wireless architecture, just in time for the iPad 2. 5. (tie) Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH). The tech outsourcer, No. 27 on the IBD 50 this week, where it’s another longtime regular, is our other No. 5 on this list, with 42% sales growth projected for this current quarter. That would put it revenue at $1.36 billion, the most of any company in this top 5 listing. That 42% is pretty typical, but is down from 45% and 43% the previous two quarters. The company is U.S.-based but does most of its work in India, to help its clients cut costs. The stock had a nice week, and cleared resistance near 77 on Thursday. Ed Carson over at Capital Hill reviews the IBD 50's 'A-Team,' including Aruba Networks. Check out the entire IBD 50 list (subscription required). If you don’t have a subscription, you can sign up for a free trial and get full access to the IBD 50 and investors.com. March 20: The top 5 tech hidden gems March 14: The top 5 Internet stocks March 6: The top 5 software stocks Feb. 26: The top 5 China tech stocks Feb. 22: The top 5 tech earnings reporters, based on first-day pops |
Apple’s smartphone sales
| By Patrick Seitz |
| Tue., March 29, '11 12:40 PM ET http://blogs.investors.com/click/ |
Are the glory days over for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone?
Market researcher IDC thinks so.
In its smartphone forecast released Tuesday, IDC sees Apple’s global market share hitting a plateau of 15.7% in 2011. It sees Apple’s share of the market dipping to 15.3% by 2015.
IDC predicts that Apple’s smartphone sales will grow at a compound annual rate of 18.8% from 2011 to 2015, while the overall market grows at 19.6%.
The research firm forecasts a big leap for Microsoft’s (MSFT)Windows Phone operating system during that five-year timeframe. It predicts Windows market share jumping to 20.9% in 2015 from 5.5% this year.
Nokia’s (NOK) decision in February to switch from its homegrown Symbian operating system to Windows is the big factor behind the expected increase. IDC sees Windows phone sales rising at a compound annual growth rate of 67.1%.
If IDC’s forecast holds, Microsoft would jump from No. 5 to No. 2 in global smartphone market share, based on operating systems.
The No. 1 smartphone operating system is expected to continue to be Google’s (GOOG) Android, an open-source system used by many handset makers. IDC predicts Android phone sales will grow at a compound annual rate of 23.8% over the next five years. It sees Android’s market share reaching 45.4% in 2015, up from 39.5% in 2011.
Research In Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry operating system is seen as a laggard. IDC predicts that BlackBerry’s market share will slump to 13.7% in 2015 from 14.9% in 2011
Tuesday 29 March 2011
Saturday 26 March 2011
How The Rewards Of Day Trading Outweigh The Risks 3 To 1...Timothy Sykes
I did a guest post on Trader’s Library the other day entitled “24 Reasons To Day Trade, A Response To James Altucher’s ‘8 Reasons Not To Daytrade” and people really seem to be enjoying it.
James himself linked to it in his daily blogwatch and CrossHairs Trader did a great summary highlighting the best of what I wrote in an article entitled “TIMOTHY SYKES AND THE REWARDS OF DAY TRADING”
I’ve reposted my post below because I worked damn hard on it and it’s good:
When I read James Altucher’s latest article entitled “8 Reasons Not To Day Trade”, I couldn’t help but feel anger and within a few hours of reading it, I experienced many of the symptoms he describes, although in a slightly different context…my blood boiled over, I felt as though I couldn’t produce anything until I wrote this response, I rubbed my eyes to see if his post was even real, somehow thinking it was impossible that he could write such blasphemy and then I had a delicious meal at my favorite Rome Restaurant Da Ivo…and I burped a loud and satisfying belch.
You can read my whole biography here but to summarize: as a trader for the past 12 years, day trading made me a millionaire by age 22, a wannabe hedge fund manager by age 23, a reality-TV star by age 25 and now a trading coach/blogger with over 1,000 students by age 29…and trading has taught me many more qualities which are less apparent but equally, if not more, important…
In short, I owe day trading everything and despite my friendship with and my tremendous respect for James, the industry cries out for a rational defense…which I intend to provide.
And just like the occupation itself, whether or not you should day trade comes down to risk-reward. While James lists 8 potential risks, below I have listed 24 potential rewards, giving day trading an overly simplistic yet surprisingly accurate risk-reward ratio of 3-1, an enticing ratio indeed…as any trader will tell you.
1. There are few greater thrills in this world than winning on a big trade in the stock market—and trust me, I’ve done quite a bit of thrill seeking in my life; everything from sky diving (twice), partying in NYC, climbing the Great Wall of China, eating the best sushi you can imagine at 5am at the Tsukiji Fish Market in Tokyo, finishing Paul Lambradt’s 23-course tasting menu at his former Atlas restaurant (try Corton, it’s my favorite restaurant in NYC…next to Soto)
2. Forget trading win thrills, even when you lose trading is exciting intellectual gambling at its finest…no more low odds Keno, years-of-training Poker or elderly Bingo, day trading is THE most exciting way to speculate and if media leaders like CNBC and theStreet.com weren’t so prude, the industry would have a better rep. The now defunct Trader Monthly magazine got the exciting part right, but their incompetent leader Randall Lane wasn’t a trader himself so he didn’t get what trading was truly about and his superficiality wasted any goodness instead focusing on luring luxury brand advertisers and encouraging risk taking and spending (wrong!).
3. You aren’t as smart as you believe and in this economy, you don’t have that great of a future either…the good news is that neither intelligence nor potential is required to be a consistently profitable day trader.
4. James says creating “a system” and mastering its psychology is difficult and that’s true, but the internet has allowed those of us with proven systems to show off and teach others—you don’t need to create anything anymore, this is an enviable time in history where you can use veteran traders to cut your learning time dramatically. I wish it were that way when I started, but back then it was impossible—now is a great time to take advantage of the technological trading revolution.
5. Sure, sure true day trading is unhealthy as ever, but if you’re getting really fat due to eating too much, you probly lack discipline so you won’t be a great trader anyway. In short, health is a great judge at deciding who is mentally fit for trading and if you make it 12 years like I have, even if you’re a little overweight (as I currently am), you’re still a champion just for lasting and the longer you last, the better odds are that you’ve captured a few opportunities and you’re worth enough to hire a trainer…if you can make the time (my problem)!
6. That’s right, trading isn’t just about making money, it’s one of the best endurance tests and mental challenges around. Forget playing Farmville and Angry Birds; are you an adult or a child? Trading separates the men…
7. James talks about how day traders have no career nor networking since watching a position consumes so much time. I agree except for that many with “careers in finance” have it worse—just endless happy hours and cubicle hopping—why do you think mindless entertainment like TMZ, Perez Hilton and CNBC are so popular? Gossip is for the bored and happy hour characters are trying to relive their college days; at least in trading when you waste your days away, it helps you improve over time.
8. And yes while 90% of traders lose (academic studies), if you are part of the magical 10%, you don’t need to read about celebrities and day dream, you have a shot at making the big money so you can produce movies, albums and when your artistic endeavors fail—which they likely will—at least you’ll be connected and rich enough to party with the celebrities enough so you’ll make the gossip pages “financial career”-types can only read.
9. Oh you didn’t know—your dreams of becoming a famous athlete, actor, singer or model—judging by TV ratings these are the careers Americans want—are far worse than the odds of becoming a rock star day trader. I wish there were more detailed stats (hello http://Profit.ly in 5 years), but for now experience and logic tells me that many more than 1 out of every 100 veteran traders is a millionaire if not multi-millionaire…not so with those other “careers”, even successful veteran singers, actors, etc. seem to end up in retail sales and as waiters and waitresses.
10. Speaking of movies, just like The Karate Kid waxing cars to learn karate techniques, tape reading, while boring and time consuming, teaches you a TON about the stock market and investor psychology…in trading, there are lessons everywhere.
11. James rips on the lack of social life most traders have, well, here’s a news flash: if you’re even thinking about day trading, you’re probly some weird ugly dude in the first place whose idea of socializing is going on Facebook, PlentyOfFish or Chatroulette…aka you had no life BEFORE you got into trading so at least now you can have no life and try to make enough money to finally compensate for your social incompetence.
12. James talks about being able to feel his own heart beating when a trade is going against him and I get that same feeling. The good news is that as a veteran trader, your body knows when a trade is very wrong and that intense heartbeat isn’t a bad thing, it’s a biological warning system trading has helped you develop reminding you to cut losses quickly!
13. Oh that’s right, while James talks abut the health, social and life risks of losing big, it can all be cured/minimized by one simple rule: cut losses quickly. As most any veteran trader will tell you, this skill is required to survive over the long term and it’s not just applicable in trading, but also for real estate, long-term investing, heck even employee and personal relationships!
14. Yes, staring at computer screen for too long does make your eyes go bad which can be countered by the fact that if you focus on ideal trading setups—which are rarer than the junk that most scalpers play—you don’t need to sit in front of the computer every second. If you look at the charts of my specialty, blatant paid pumps like RMCP, CPMCF and GVBP, the key is having patience enough to wait for them and then play them both on the long and short side when they appear every few weeks. And if you still want to research and watch in the meantime; get a glare protector—it works!
15. As for traders creating nothing, that’s wrong. Traders are the unappreciated oil that powers the engines of the financial markets. We provide much needed liquidity and while estimates range from 5-50% of overall daily trading volume,I hope that the day never comes where traders are removed from the markets in order to discover exactly how much volume we’re responsible for as when that happens the markets would likely crash without our presence. Focusing on my specialty of short selling penny stocks, if short selling of these carcass companies were disallowed, imagine how high some paid pumps would go without any sane forces being able to intervene…instead of stocks surging from $1 to $4 or $2 to $7 in a few days, there’d be runups from $1 to $50 and $2 to $170/share…and the inevitable crashes would be much worse too…total market chaos…day traders, and especially short sellers, are VERY much needed.
16. Unless you’re a forex freak, market hours of 9:30am-4pm are pretty reasonable. Sure, sure, most of us take it over the top, but remember we’re socially incompetent and our ability to party with celebrities and find the best partners is dependant on being successful, so over-working, competition and the never-ending quest for success drives us to be the best we can be…imagine if wannabe artists, musicians and writers had that same drive…oh how much more useful millions of people would be ☺
17. That’s right, since so many traders do lose money, surviving comes down to who wants it the most. So the survivors are usually very well read and can draw accurate conclusions faster than others…oh yes, trading makes you smart and decisive. The key is not getting to arrogant and risk-hungry such as LTCM/Neiderhoffer.
18. Unlike other 9-5 jobs, the best trades usually present themselves at the market open and near the market close…I know many traders who make six and seven figures/year working roughly 2 hours per day and never holding any overnight positions. Name another job with that monetary potential/low risk…I dare you…and I’m talking ethical jobs only.
19. Since many traders are adrenaline junkies and many of us have millions, we tend to have a bit of fun. I won’t name all the possibilities of what you can do with your trading profits as that would make you think the fun is limited…while in fact, it’s a big world and the potential for fun/adventure is unlimited. I know talking about money is taboo, but if anybody else would be honest like I am, you’d start to see the potential.
20. If you even know the slightest basics of day trading, even if you fail, the industry is so full of suckers that you can start a “trading education” firm and hardly anybody will even know if what you teach is real or not. There have been several frauds busted and many more not busted who fit this description…but hurry since my two new websites http://www.investimonials.com andhttp://profit.ly are gaining momentum so creating a profitable fraud is getting tougher and tougher. (Even if you do get caught, you can still write a best-selling book like The Wolf Of Wall Street and negotiate with Leonardo DiCaprio to play you since crime capers are always in demand…easy to film and great commercial appeal)
21. Heck, you don’t even have to be a fraud to teach, learn the basics of day trading, make a little money and then teach honestly. My little $1+ million/year educational product business is run my myself, my dad and my mom and my strategy is unscalable, unable to be covered by mainstream media and full of obstacles! If you have an easier strategy that can consistently earn $5,000/year, you can teach others and sell it for $500/year and everyone wins…seriously. And I know of a TON of traders and strategies that yield between $5,000-$50,000/year, not enough for a full-time career in trading, but if those people also taught, they’d find the supplementary educational income to be greater than the actual trading profits.
22. If you become an expert trader in a niche, it’s pretty difficult to lose. Niche traders don’t get ANY press or respect, but their income is steady and exemplifies how great day trading can be.
23. Think of how many lazy Americans would love to earn solid paychecks just sitting on their fat butts…welcome to day trading.
24. Not to mention that as a day trader, you’re kinda like a cowboy, independent, rugged, rough around the edges…cubicle monkeys and forced-to-be-superficial bankers and brokers are jealous to no end. Go earn your commissions and hate most of the stuff you say, these salespeople are barely human anymore, sad.
25. And if you’ve ever hung around day traders, we talk faster, think faster and do things faster…we get more out of life because trading is a fast-paced job; I don’t know too many day traders who get along with elderly-Bingo-playing-adult-diaper-wearing value investors named Warren.
26. Ah yes, we can have attitudes and most of us become jaded and cynical, but in finance this is required to survive. Traders might feel connected through a kind of “brotherhood”, but we don’t trust each other because trading is a battlefield and veterans understand this.
27. Whoops, I went over my goal of 24 reasons, which brings up my last point; despite working with numbers all day, many successful traders, including myself, are terrible at math! My students, friends and parents laugh when I can’t calculate simple arithmetic problems, but trading involves a different kind of math skillset since the numbers always moving and over time, I develop a kind of gut-based rough-estimate mathematical talent that serves me well in fast-moving trades
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