Thursday 14 April 2011

Crash JpMorgan Buy Silver! - InformedTrades

Crash JpMorgan Buy Silver! - InformedTrades
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All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

PnF: Silver Heading to $55 and Gold to $1880 - InformedTrades

PnF: Silver Heading to $55 and Gold to $1880 - InformedTrades

PnF: Silver Heading to $55 and Gold to $1880

Posted 03-29-2011 at 01:11 AM by forexer [Show Appreciation] What's This?

Those who know PnF charting know how useful they are to predicting Price Objectives. You may laugh at these predictions based on simple math, some boxes and points but in many cases, simple is right. Price objectives are extremely important when we're in a secular bull market because when prices go parabolic, chances are we'll get caught up in the frenzy, loose a sense of realism and end up with the herd, panicking to sell, most of the time at a bad price which is much lower from the top or an intermediate top.

Let me talk about Silver for a moment before moving on to Gold.


This is the PnF chart with a box size of 1 and a 3 box reversal method. I've masked the Xs and Os with green and red colors respectively to make the moves of supply and demand more obvious. This chart dates back to 2008 and beyond, showing the manipulation by the bullion banks which distorted much of the early picture. We start off from a 5 column bullish triangle break, giving us a buy signal. Then we went into a consolidation with a massive shakeout before demand immediately too over at the bottom of the manipulation phase. However, that demand failed to take prices to a new top, failing to generate a buy signal. Supply took over temporary and reversed price $4 lower, before demand stepped in, preventing price from making a lower bottom. Price very quickly rallied, generated a buy signal off a triple top break, rallying $13 off a base of $16. We then saw the termination of the up move with a 3 box reversal of Os. This gave us the signal to measure the vertical price objective. as of that time. I won;t go into the entire details of the criteria for starting a measure but i think it is justified for me to make a vertical price objective measurement based off this move. The calculations are shown in the PnF chart above and leads us to a price of $55 on SLV, which we can roughly equate to $55 on Silver. Not bad, for now.


Lets move on to Gold now.

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The chart above is the PnF chart of GLD with setting box size of 2 and 3 point reversal method. Now this chart seems much more messy and complicated than the SLV chart but it was infact clearer and easier for me to calculate the price objectives. There are 2 mwthods to measure price objectives. One is the vertical method, which i use for SLV and the other is the horizontal method, which i will now explain in GLD. The Vertical method takes the continuous result of breakout either from a sell or but signal and does simple calculations to them, before subtracting or adding them to the top or bottom of the move, respectively. It can be said to be more aggressive in nature. The horizontal price objective calculation is based on the width of the base, leading up to the breakout. It is partly a function of the time taken for accumulation or distribution. The longer the time taken for the base to be formed, the more powerful the breakout will be expected to be. However, longer time not equals wider base because PnF takes out the function of time. Nevertheless, time is important in all investment decisions and i cannot exclude that.

The above chart has 2 mirrored sections. The left section is the workings for the vertical price objective and the right section is for the horizontal price objective. Starting of with the right section, we can identify a perfect, textbook styled move to measure our price objective. In the bolded circle, we had a sell signal, off a double bottom break. Immediately after wards, demand stepped in aggressively and rocketed price $24 higher before a got a termination of that upmove by a 3 (4) point reversal of Os. The upmove of Xs generated that critical buy signal by breaking a triple top at price level $122. The calculations are on the right section of the chart and leads us to a vertical price objective of $188 on GLD and roughly, $1880 on Gold itself. Circumstances are changing and looks like we are having another possible opportunity to revise our objective by the formation of a new breakout pattern. Price just needs to continue up on Xs.

On the right section of the chart, we can see the workings for the 2 horizontal price objective calculations. The first base i identified is for the first price objective, the second higher base is for the second. Basically we take the number of columns with consecutive staggering Xs and Os, take that count, multiplied by the box size, multiplied by 3 and adding that to the bottom of the base. For both bases we got a buy signal of a triple to break which is necessary for horizontal price objective calculations. We arrive at 2 fairly close price objectives of $144 and $158 ($1440 and $1580 for Gold). The time taken for the second base to for was 4 months, longer than the 3 months taken for the first base.

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

About Risk: A Must Read for Everyone - InformedTrades

About Risk: A Must Read for Everyone - InformedTrades

About Risk: A Must Read for Everyone

Posted 04-04-2011 at 01:08 AM by forexer [Show Appreciation] What's This?
Updated 04-04-2011 at 11:35 AM by forexer

Make that jump, try new things, laugh at failure. I'm just starting out in MMA fighting and i got to learn to take pain, take the risk when sparing with a pro guy. Risk my safety, my joints, my tendons and my brain when i fight because i could get seriously injured or even die.

Learn to love risk, embrace it, not avoid it. Rickey III, met a guy who was willing to let us buy into a condominium project being constructed in Florida. The deal was that we could purchase up to 10 condominiums at a price of 10,000 each. At the time, 10,000 was a pretty good chunk of money, but the deal was extraordinary. If everything went as planned, there was a good chance we could double or triple our money in no time. Still there was a risk-there always is a risk. Because it was beachfront property, the taxes were very high. Unlike Branch, I did not have the money to invest long term. I would have to borrow the money at a fairly high interest rate and then hope that I could turn the property over in a short period. Otherwise, I would lose a lot of money. In the end, I decided not to do the deal. Of course, you know the end of the story already. The property is now worth anywhere from $500,000 to $1 million.

Yes, I could have been living in the Bahamas relaxing on the beach, but I failed to take the risk. There is one thing I'm certain of-if you don't have the guts to put yourself on the line now and then, your chances of success are limited. To reach the top, athletes-or anyone else for that matter-have to know how to live on the edge. They have to enjoy the elements of risk and a little danger. I'm not talking about taking needless, senseless, incalculable risks, like running with the bulls in Pamplona or attempting a 500-pound dead-lift when your personal best is 300 hundred pounds; such actions prove nothing except that you have the brain of an infant. What I'm talking about is intelligent, calculated risk-taking in which the risk in question has a legitimate cost-reward relationship.

This really speaks to the business of investing. You have to be a risk-taker to even survive in this business, much less flourish. Every time you buy a stock, you are risking your hard-earned money. If you are a broker, you are risking your clients' hard-earned money. If you can't operate in a high-risk environment, then the business of investing is not for you. I have met many investors and brokers who just couldn't make a buy decision for fear of losing their or their clients' money. It's good to have a healthy dose of trepidation in this business of investing money. That way you don't make stupid mistakes, but freezing only causes you to miss great opportunities. There is a big difference between having a healthy respect for risk and allowing risk to paralyze your thought processes. Many investors and brokers simply can't deal with market volatility. A fine line exists between managing risk and being controlled by risk. The stock market is not a place for the faint of heart. To reach the pinnacle in the personal or professional investment field, you have to learn to live on the edge, to enjoy the element of risk and danger-at least to a reasonable degree.

Look back through time and you'll find that people who had the courage to take a chance, who faced their fears head on, were those who shaped history. The people who played it safe, who were afraid to take a risk, well, have you ever heard of them? I love what Theodore Roosevelt said about this very issue:

It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again because there is no effort without error and shortcomings, who knows the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the high achievement of triumph and who at worst, if he fails while daring greatly, knows his place shall never be with those timid and cold souls who know neither victory nor defeat. (Powerlifting, June 1999)


Roosevelt's words remind me of this business of investing, and how many critics are out there ready to pounce on your every misstep although they never step into the ring, never actually put their reputation or their money on the line. In the case of a professional, these critics never lose one minute of sleep because they are worried about other peoples' well-being.

You are here to learn this method to better help you fight the battle. You realize that nothing is perfect and at times you will err and err again; but quit, you will never do. As time goes on, you will begin to intuitively understand things in the market that used to baffle you. Eventually, you will reach craftsman status. The critics will continue criticizing because that is what they do best. Just turn the television on to any financial station and you will come away with gibberish. Once you nail down these principles of analysis, you will have no need for business periodicals or financial TV.

I remember vividly my broker years. My face was marred and bloodied many times but I was in the ring trying, striving for excellence. I just didn't have a plan back then. What a difference this information and way of thinking would have made if they had been available to me when I was a broker. Mix this with my enthusiasm and dedication to excellence and the combination is unbeatable. Many of you have already done this, and it makes me feel so good to see so many of you actually making a major difference out there in your own and others financial well-being.

Theodore Roosevelt was right, the credit goes to you the investor or broker who is actually in the arena, who at times comes up short again and again but in the end experiences triumph. This is why I wholeheartedly recommend you learn these methods and manage your money yourself. Win or lose, be the one in the ring where the action is. Make the decisions, take the calculated risk, live. Don't find yourself at the mercy of others or at the end of your career having ridden the bus and looked out the window, watching others reach greatness. It's all here for the taking. You just have to want it. Sports are full of great physical specimens, but there is a real shortage of athletes who are willing to play their game with reckless abandon, and athletes who are willing to put themselves and their careers on the line. Those who do are usually the ones at the top.

The truth in that last line inspires me. If you're not willing to risk, you have no growth, no change, no freedom. And when that happens, you are no longer involved in living; for all practical purposes, you have no life. You're dead, but you just don't know it. So risk, for goodness sake. Be a part of life. You have the power to be or do anything you want. You can produce miracles if you have a mind to. You have the magic, you just have to tap into it. Get in touch with it, make things happen, live-journey to the stars, push on to new galaxies. If you don't, you will never know your greatness!


All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.

Gold Standard & Great Misconceptions - InformedTrades

Gold Standard & Great Misconceptions - InformedTrades

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold MinKL Invest harmless in any and all ways.